Estimating time-sensitive risk at ambulance dispatch

A retrospective register-based prediction study of primary emergency ambulance assignments in Region Stockholm, examining whether structured information available at dispatch can estimate subsequent high-risk time-sensitive triage.

01At ambulance dispatch

02Study aim

03Interpretation boundaries

SettingRegion Stockholm · Sweden

Source-data periodsDevelopment 2017–2018 · temporal validation 2019

Prediction pointAt ambulance dispatch

Manuscript in preparationThe manuscript is in preparation. This page describes the study purpose, design and scope only; findings are not presented before journal publication.

Research question: Can structured information available when an ambulance is dispatched estimate subsequent high-risk time-sensitive triage—and offer a more granular risk signal for professional decision-making under constrained capacity?
Study design: A retrospective register-based prediction study of primary emergency ambulance assignments in Region Stockholm, examining whether structured information available at dispatch can estimate subsequent high-risk time-sensitive triage.
Data: Region Stockholm · Sweden · Development 2017–2018 · temporal validation 2019
Planned analysis: The study includes acute primary ambulance assignments dispatched at priorities 1–3 in Region Stockholm. Models are developed using source data from 2017–2018 and temporally evaluated in a later 2019 cohort. The prediction point is ambulance dispatch, and all inputs are limited to structured information available by that time.
Study aim: The aim is to assess whether dispatch-time risk estimation could complement—never replace—professional judgement when reviewing queued calls and considering finite response capacity.

Interpretation boundaries

The study concerns retrospective risk estimation, not autonomous allocation, safe deferral or a deployment-ready clinical tool. No operational decision rule is presented.

Manuscript in preparation

The manuscript is in preparation. This page describes the study purpose, design and scope only; findings are not presented before journal publication.

Research provenance

Publication status: Manuscript in preparation
Research question: Can structured information available when an ambulance is dispatched estimate subsequent high-risk time-sensitive triage—and offer a more granular risk signal for professional decision-making under constrained capacity?
Setting: Region Stockholm · Sweden
Source-data periods: Development 2017–2018 · temporal validation 2019
Study design: The study includes acute primary ambulance assignments dispatched at priorities 1–3 in Region Stockholm. Models are developed using source data from 2017–2018 and temporally evaluated in a later 2019 cohort. The prediction point is ambulance dispatch, and all inputs are limited to structured information available by that time.
Interpretation boundaries: The study concerns retrospective risk estimation, not autonomous allocation, safe deferral or a deployment-ready clinical tool. No operational decision rule is presented.
Manuscript in preparation: The manuscript is in preparation. This page describes the study purpose, design and scope only; findings are not presented before journal publication.