Upcoming study · Manuscript in preparation
Dispatch-time prediction for safer EMS resource allocation
A retrospective model-development and temporal-validation study examining whether information available when an ambulance is dispatched can estimate the probability of later high-risk time-sensitive triage.
Can information already available at ambulance dispatch provide a useful probability estimate of subsequent high-risk time-sensitive triage—and add nuance to human-led resource allocation when capacity is constrained?
Study design
Primary ambulance assignments in Region Stockholm are studied retrospectively. Models are developed using source data from 2017–2018 and evaluated in a calendar-later 2019 cohort. Predictors are restricted to structured information available at or before dispatch.
Intended contribution
The study examines a possible information layer for professional decision-making: a continuous estimate of clinical risk that can be interpreted alongside dispatch priority, queue state and system readiness.
Interpretation boundaries
The study does not evaluate autonomous allocation, safe deferral or a live clinical tool. Any future use would require prospectively locked validation, workflow and human-factors evaluation, equity assessment, governance and continued professional oversight.
Manuscript in preparation
To protect the journal publication process, no study results or performance estimates are presented here.